College Football · resolved market
Spread: Virginia (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ed0e1740da06c976de32ef8f02811d7662158e4800bb3fece251a69ba4a3275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Virginia, Duke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Duke | 55c | 15,109$8,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,762.01 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Virginia | 46c | 10,141$4,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,712 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Duke | 54c | 8,959$4,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,104.35 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Virginia | 45c | 6,631$2,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,984.17 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virginia | 45c | 6,168$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.16 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Duke | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Duke | 53c | 3,400$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.99 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Virginia | 44c | 3,039$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.08 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Virginia | 47c | 3,029$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.67 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Duke | 53c | 2,702$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Virginia | 47c | 2,014$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.52 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Virginia | 46c | 1,900$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Duke | 54c | 1,800$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Virginia | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Virginia | 47c | 1,300$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virginia | 44c | 1,057$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.21 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Virginia | 47c | 253.19$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…30babacked Duke | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…4a50backed Virginia | 47c | 158.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Virginia | 45c | 135.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Virginia | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Duke | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Duke | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Duke | 55c | 78.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…aa19backed Virginia | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Virginia | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Duke | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Duke | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Virginia | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Virginia | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…60c2backed Duke | 55c | 18.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Duke | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia (-4.5)this page
- Duke vs. VirginiaDuke won
- Duke vs. Virginia: 1H MoneylineDuke won
- Duke vs. Virginia: O/U 58.5Under won
- O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: Virginia (-3.5)Duke won
- Spread: Virginia (-3.5)Duke won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.