Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Natsuki Yoshimoto vs Jizelle Sibai
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11871807941118c9ad787520f361cbef118ea0f82ca0811cbbc83d21f8c6d9d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natsuki Yoshimotoof Natsuki Yoshimoto, Jizelle Sibai
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Jizelle Sibai | 34c | 12,014$4,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,097.68 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 63c | 6,837$4,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.71 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 69c | 1,968$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.49 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 68c | 1,139$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.82 | 1,842 | 41%755 W · 1,087 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 67c | 901$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.83 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 74c | 521.55$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.74 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 426 | 43.9%187 W · 239 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Jizelle Sibai | 42c | 238.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Jizelle Sibai | 33c | 233.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 60c | 216$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…de2fbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 60c | 200.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 73c | 199.54$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 330 | 43.9%145 W · 185 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 77c | 194.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 164 | 67.7%111 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…0454backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Jizelle Sibai | 39c | 128.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…9c4cbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 70c | 100.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Jizelle Sibai | 33c | 95.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Jizelle Sibai | 30c | 75.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 568 | 48.9%278 W · 290 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Jizelle Sibai | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 67c | 63.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 478 | 52.1%249 W · 229 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c9…cba1backed Jizelle Sibai | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 568 | 53.9%306 W · 262 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…9c0cbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 77c | 48.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…371dbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 70c | 25.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 826 | 59.3%490 W · 336 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 324 | 52.5%170 W · 154 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 627 | 49.4%310 W · 317 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…a581backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.