World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1199be7c358cee4044ab2e13ce1f80ae7f4beed904a8a04dfbda98f703e34874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 72c | 952.43$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.97 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 628.18$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.34 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 23c | 564.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 29c | 505.41$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.99 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed No | 78c | 401.35$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 181.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 177.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 162.36$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 155.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.8 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 146$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 121.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 56c | 121.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 117.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 104.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 70c | 91.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 86.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 25c | 77.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 47c | 75.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 37c | 73.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 42c | 62.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 71c | 59.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 57c | 52.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 50.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 80c | 43.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 39c | 43.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 36c | 41.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 38.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 77c | 36.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 50c | 35.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 33.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e59…ac60backed No | 76c | 32.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 64c | 31.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 30.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 28.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 39c | 25.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 25.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 44c | 25.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed No | 49c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 43c | 25.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 21.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 21.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…a2c3backed No | 73c | 21.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 63c | 21.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 59c | 20.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 59c | 20.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 70c | 18.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 16.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.