World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fa9bbafcc355739017500ba51d22f88b6d54805f89dc0213d22451f16a09531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 1,474$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.61 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 597.31$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 6c | 489.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 300$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 57c | 198.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 177.45$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 40c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 106.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 49c | 105.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 94.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 93.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 86.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 41c | 85.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 75.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 75.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 75c | 66.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 47.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 58c | 44.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 43c | 34.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 79c | 31.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…60fabacked Yes | 44c | 29.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…9bc6backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e59…ac60backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 22.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…a698backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 21.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 21.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…26e5backed No | 71c | 21.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 21.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 51c | 19.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 64c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 76c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 58c | 18.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 79c | 14.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 73c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.