Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1199e387ce3cd2999fe4ebdef38db451c36ac92cca252f3eea9d1cc05fbdbcb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 47c | 214.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 192.85$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 41c | 159.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 142.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…5942backed Yes | 35c | 138.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 109.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…1be9backed Yes | 34c | 107.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 29c | 103.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 39c | 99.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 64c | 97.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 96.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 90.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 65c | 89.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 32c | 87.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 64c | 86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 79.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…41afbacked Yes | 35c | 76.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 36c | 75.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 42c | 72.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 38c | 66.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 40c | 63.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 38c | 57.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 35c | 55.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e4…f44bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 66c | 48.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…6c62backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 35c | 41.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 38.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 69c | 35.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 35.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 32.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 64c | 30.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 39c | 30.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 28.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 27.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…56f6backed No | 66c | 27.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 64c | 24.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 43c | 23.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 65c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27d0…7943backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 60c | 18.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.