Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c2eda84650760c95398ecb08be8fecee6ec23ec876c7090474da793b19a0432
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26fc…4c27backed No | 1c | 3,730$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 131 | 0.8%1 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -97.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 66c | 301.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 24c | 198.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 197.94$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 180.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 62c | 180.89$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 166.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 52c | 129.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 106.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 37c | 89.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 17c | 87.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…5942backed Yes | 64c | 78.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 72.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 58c | 69.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 61.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 37c | 59.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 48c | 57.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 40c | 57.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 35c | 56.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 34c | 55.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 48c | 50.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 48.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 43c | 43.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…56f6backed No | 54c | 42.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 39.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 39.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 44c | 35.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 76c | 33.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 31.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 45c | 28.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 44c | 25.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 51c | 23.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…0de1backed Yes | 49c | 23.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 56c | 22.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9540…9f9abacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 54c | 21.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 50c | 20.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf408…88d3backed Yes | 64c | 18.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 56c | 18.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 69c | 16.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.