Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x119c5451769826aef6615a19e28a4c432dc84bd1e331ac1e45bcbec60cd176d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 1,298$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.54 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 211.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 48c | 208.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 31c | 189.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…0fbbbacked No | 60c | 173$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 60c | 159$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 148.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 128$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 126.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 43c | 120.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 113.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 112.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 101.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 97.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…00e4backed No | 60c | 93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 40c | 91.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 89.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 36c | 87.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 41c | 73.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 47c | 68.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 66.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 51.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 61c | 46.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 45.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 45.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 68c | 44.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 37.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd4…b2f2backed No | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 36.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 62c | 34.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 68c | 28.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 65c | 16.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.