Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11a78d394a9950fd2f24410f7c21fe68ef231d41eb7cd19625db2787ad74c985
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 17c | 454.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 409.21$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 17c | 190$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 7c | 182.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 29c | 175$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 15c | 166.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 12c | 162.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 17c | 140.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 19c | 139.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 15c | 113.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 12c | 109.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 23c | 107.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 17c | 98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 18c | 89.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 88.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 17c | 82.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 24c | 78.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 74c | 78.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 77.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 67.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 52c | 56.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 29c | 55.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 54.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 44.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 32c | 44.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 40.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 79c | 29.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 23.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…4298backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 18.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 17.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.