Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13e7b146388e5674d5ea55eda8dfb1e3526999651ddb5e6959f29ba5ee2a6770
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 80c | 314.37$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 40c | 207.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 46c | 201$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 200.38$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 182.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 178.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 153.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 48c | 150.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 18c | 138.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 137.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 46c | 117.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 36c | 109.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 107$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 18c | 106.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 21c | 101.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 53c | 96.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 93.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 53c | 93.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 92.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 91.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 45c | 78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 18c | 76.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x690e…8e12backed Yes | 70c | 71.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 67.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 45c | 65.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 63.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 62.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 61.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 55c | 59.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 55.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 79c | 50.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 56c | 48.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 54c | 43.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 70c | 42.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 41.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 46c | 36.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 33.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 30.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 25.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…c699backed Yes | 44c | 24.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 52c | 23.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…32e1backed Yes | 68c | 15.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x184b…67b2backed Yes | 75c | 15.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.