MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11a80589dac9d4b1d5056bd77d60a213edb1f702a903c487d0a739bbd2241dd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 2,290$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.21 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 1,504$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 1,480$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.32 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 1,007$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.66 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Colorado Rockies | 62c | 929.44$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.19 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 74c | 694.72$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.92 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Colorado Rockies | 64c | 435.49$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.78 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 412.91$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Colorado Rockies | 64c | 254.04$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 77c | 246.82$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 18c | 221.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 168.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Colorado Rockies | 72c | 126$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 114$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 27c | 91.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Colorado Rockies | 78c | 87.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Colorado Rockies | 66c | 64.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 47.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 19.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.