MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9115bd1095c5faae9e03e8504e725116cb630b6cc1beec5542e3671c9e34c058
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 44c | 40,101$17,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,456.4 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 56c | 16,758$9,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,384.24 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 56c | 10,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 4,961$3,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 21c | 4,025$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.01 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.99 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 3,649$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 56c | 3,640$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 44c | 1,697$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.22 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 1,677$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 39c | 1,055$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.78 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 46c | 999.78$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.9 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 56c | 982.15$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 40c | 957.45$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.93 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 56c | 937$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.72 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 56c | 573$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.88 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 507.7$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.31 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 40c | 460.2$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.93 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 55c | 451.2$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.16 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 427.45$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 56c | 394.61$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.98 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 44c | 340$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 56c | 333.33$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.66 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 20c | 253.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 56c | 198$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 79c | 165$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…804abacked Over | 11c | 146$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 107$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 53c | 55.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 74c | 51.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…f719backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a1…5a4fbacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba17…5c67backed Over | 56c | 39.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Over | 49c | 38.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…e101backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 61c | 31.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…7fdebacked Over | 56c | 28.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 56c | 26.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 56c | 22.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 56c | 22.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Over | 56c | 19.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 79c | 15.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.