MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc98828e59de18d3236095886058846e3f5e606f4fa343e6a21f143f45e032af9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 17,462$8,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,608.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 11,011$5,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,261.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6d…08a8backed Over | 35c | 3,715$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.31 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 69c | 2,910$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.5 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 57c | 2,371$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.04 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 2,162$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 48c | 1,703$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 65c | 1,231$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.77 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 47c | 1,006$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.14 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 48c | 840.41$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.01 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 48c | 554.81$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.98 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 48c | 495.52$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.31 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 48c | 487.6$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.55 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 345.81$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 36c | 302.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 67c | 244$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 36c | 216.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 48c | 214$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.28 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 198.33$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 64c | 191.94$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 48c | 157.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 39c | 128.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 48c | 125.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 56c | 121.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 67c | 114.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 54c | 114.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 48c | 94.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 42c | 76.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Over | 51c | 64.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 57c | 50.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 48c | 48.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 58c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 55c | 45.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Under | 50c | 44.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 197 | 59.9%118 W · 79 L | +21.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 48c | 41.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 30c | 40.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Under | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 48c | 36.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 55c | 34.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Under | 54c | 32.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd91…b49abacked Under | 48c | 29.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Under | 54c | 27.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Under | 52c | 26.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 53c | 22.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 22.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 66c | 16.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.