NHL · resolved market
Rangers vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11cb1154866974dc45083becc3fae21bb308ab16ba041ad013e53de33db7d28d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Over | 44c | 15,856$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…f985backed Under | 57c | 9,000$5,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,870 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…4422backed Over | 43c | 9,000$3,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,870 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4052…eb90backed Over | 44c | 7,900$3,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,476 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…0e3ebacked Under | 56c | 7,900$4,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,476 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 58c | 5,739$3,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,425.05 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 5,546$3,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,442.75 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 42c | 4,998$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 57c | 1,751$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.49 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Under | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 1,406$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.7 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 55c | 1,346$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.81 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 55c | 1,159$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.55 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…976bbacked Over | 45c | 551.11$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…58c7backed Over | 44c | 489.2$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 57c | 444$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…8c00backed Over | 43c | 162.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 44c | 92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…bca4backed Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5d…4c40backed Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…f598backed Under | 57c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb603…754bbacked Under | 57c | 56.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaabe…ff32backed Over | 45c | 44.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…6ffbbacked Over | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -57%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Under | 65c | 28.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…073cbacked Over | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 44c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef73…9f32backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ee…31cabacked Under | 59c | 18.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5this page
- Rangers vs. BlackhawksBlackhawks won
- Rangers vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Blackhawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.