Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa beat Arsenal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11d3c5a08e4cd4681b2e3d4b1e7c7d8ada9a0f80a99c1c32855896624fbd8074
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 79c | 1,167$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.49 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 19c | 714.76$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 21c | 603$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 20c | 550$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 20c | 378.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 79c | 312.27$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 17c | 240.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9e…1256backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 76c | 158.33$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 18c | 153.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…bffdbacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…a9c2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…a87dbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…c35fbacked Yes | 23c | 87.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…eb25backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 74c | 66.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…7353backed No | 80c | 26.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3770…d4e5backed No | 80c | 23.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa beat Arsenal?this page
- Will Arsenal beat Aston Villa?Yes won
- Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.