Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal beat Aston Villa?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7b440d1c28c006f3dd220002fb0e0b0275c2c2ebcdab9e3c3609b1db3c879d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 25c | 14,699$3,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,677.32 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 61c | 5,336$3,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.53 | 155 | 54.8%85 W · 70 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Yes | 57c | 4,386$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,886.05 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 43c | 4,386$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,886.05 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 44c | 3,962$1,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.74 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbce8…4a44backed No | 51c | 2,353$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.95 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 43c | 2,107$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.69 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,954$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 43c | 1,739$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.58 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked Yes | 65c | 1,600$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.02 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…00f3backed Yes | 56c | 1,059$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.22 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed No | 41c | 986.67$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.39 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 35c | 773.63$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.47 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…ced1backed Yes | 55c | 675.99$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Yes | 57c | 621.07$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.3 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 45c | 520.33$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.15 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 57c | 500$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.6wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…7dd6backed No | 45c | 488.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 58c | 451.03$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.48 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 55c | 450$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…83e5backed No | 46c | 411.9$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Yes | 57c | 350$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1c96backed Yes | 58c | 341.57$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.46 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…3e97backed No | 33c | 283.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Yes | 56c | 244.78$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 30c | 215$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…391ebacked No | 45c | 202.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 59c | 183.14$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…8e39backed No | 45c | 125$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 54c | 108.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…4b9cbacked Yes | 58c | 108$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…6153backed Yes | 77c | 103.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc751…990ebacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799f…a9ebbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…dd16backed Yes | 56c | 93.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…f1aebacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…4bc5backed Yes | 58c | 90.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…c433backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0a…6758backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…bffdbacked Yes | 59c | 81.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…db7abacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 35c | 59.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9e…1256backed Yes | 55c | 56.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…7e03backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 67cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…0fa1backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 53c | 50.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…b9babacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…b591backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…af0dbacked No | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 160 | 60%96 W · 64 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e66…8cf9backed Yes | 57c | 40.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…af29backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…5ee1backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…f999backed Yes | 56c | 35.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…61b3backed Yes | 55c | 31.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…22eebacked Yes | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8033…a049backed Yes | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…946cbacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…900abacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56d…d4a4backed Yes | 58c | 22.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4e…aad6backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…704abacked Yes | 57c | 19.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 63c | 18.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal beat Aston Villa?this page
- Will Aston Villa beat Arsenal?No won
- Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.