Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85632c3bd892e769bac8c360794077b02e9e907c250573f33de0a1e09962d2cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x282e…00f3backed Yes | 26c | 967.81$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 74c | 897.44$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.52 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7366…b134backed Yes | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +255.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…5760backed Yes | 6c | 277.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b48…51d0backed No | 75c | 217$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…4b9cbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…4bc5backed Yes | 29c | 127.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 74c | 109.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…d6d7backed Yes | 13c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 23c | 72.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 22c | 50.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 61c | 31.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal beat Aston Villa?Yes won
- Will Aston Villa beat Arsenal?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.