Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Lille OSC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11d7251b653d0ff915267a02e0b969a59cef3d07da2127af29d78dddc8acb122
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $288,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bde…8c91backed No | 20c | 266,570$53,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,314.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 80c | 173,596$138,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,719.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 80c | 36,615$29,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,323 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 80c | 19,601$15,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,002.31 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 79c | 13,637$10,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.21 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 80c | 10,000$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 3c | 2,787$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +204.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 28c | 2,392$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.25 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 33c | 1,250$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.03 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 43c | 641.84$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.08 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…3159backed Yes | 33c | 608.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 520$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968a…6842backed Yes | 25c | 520$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 39c | 405.13$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aba…00d8backed Yes | 26c | 360$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…6a3ebacked Yes | 75c | 282.39$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 62c | 258.95$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.55 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 27c | 228.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.66 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 44c | 204.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 76c | 197.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 16c | 180$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 28c | 110.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d3…1895backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 57c | 73.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe86…ec62backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked No | 75c | 35.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 76c | 35.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…35debacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…69d5backed No | 76c | 24.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lille OSC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-05?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.