Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Norrie (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x121d1b6d77b7899918366f018c920297dfd6c166eb5755b5a03137e0c22bd092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norrieof Minaur, Norrie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Minaur | 42c | 2,327$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.66 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked Norrie | 58c | 1,296$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.41 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…dc82backed Norrie | 60c | 730.61$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…8e4ebacked Norrie | 58c | 669$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.27 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked Norrie | 58c | 520.48$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.3 | 248 | 52%129 W · 119 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Minaur | 40c | 476.39$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.91 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Minaur | 46c | 420.9$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.52 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Minaur | 47c | 407.88$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Norrie | 58c | 336.62$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Minaur | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Minaur | 41c | 241.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…650dbacked Norrie | 61c | 238.44$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 157 | 62.4%98 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…07c2backed Norrie | 59c | 183.21$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Minaur | 39c | 153.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…0244backed Minaur | 35c | 112.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Minaur | 17c | 98.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Minaur | 45c | 58.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Norrie | 61c | 49.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Norrie | 60c | 47.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…b4c8backed Norrie | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Minaur | 30c | 38.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Norrie | 65c | 32.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…1ba5backed Minaur | 46c | 32.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Norrie | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Norrie (+1.5)this page
- Cameron Norrie vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Norrie vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de MinaurAlex de Minaur won
- Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs MinaurMinaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.