Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc0f731bf2f9deea3ece81119b6293aaa67270caf89092c1f1eef5b8fc24eab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Norrie, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b90…f361backed Minaur | 72c | 1,857$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.39 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Norrie | 45c | 1,043$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.07 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Minaur | 52c | 926.84$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.12 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Minaur | 59c | 499.02$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.16 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Norrie | 50c | 395.42$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.08 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Norrie | 20c | 326.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Norrie | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +10.7wins | +0.31per pick | 12cpaid | +212%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Norrie | 53c | 274.76$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.09 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Minaur | 61c | 253.43$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.74 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…07c2backed Norrie | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Minaur | 50c | 245.94$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…4fd9backed Norrie | 45c | 239.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Minaur | 44c | 221.18$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.56 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…4fb2backed Minaur | 64c | 214.66$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.41 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Norrie | 22c | 213$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…56ddbacked Minaur | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Norrie | 36c | 160$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…fa0ebacked Minaur | 46c | 158.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Minaur | 64c | 156.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Norrie | 49c | 131.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd95f…adfdbacked Norrie | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Norrie | 26c | 116.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Norrie | 55c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Norrie | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Norrie | 25c | 93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Minaur | 30c | 86.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Norrie | 40c | 81.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcf…6585backed Minaur | 74c | 81.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Norrie | 37c | 79.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Norrie | 46c | 78.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Norrie | 48c | 76.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Minaur | 61c | 63.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Norrie | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed Minaur | 51c | 56.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 313 | 58.5%183 W · 130 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked Minaur | 32c | 50.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Minaur | 47c | 48.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed Minaur | 53c | 45.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -10.4wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…3542backed Norrie | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Norrie | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 44cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Minaur | 54c | 32.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Norrie | 54c | 30.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Norrie | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Minaur | 63c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe56d…361abacked Minaur | 51c | 20.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…7a60backed Minaur | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Norrie | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 283 | 43.8%124 W · 159 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…dde4backed Norrie | 56c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…e058backed Minaur | 66c | 16.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Minaurthis page
- Cameron Norrie vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Norrie vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de MinaurAlex de Minaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Norrie (+1.5)Norrie won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.