Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12235688f35629b9f203e5baeab30d2f7bf1162e87ece500978f069bfe77b087
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 77c | 977.54$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.34 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 573.35$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…5bc2backed No | 26c | 543.98$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 6c | 326.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.46 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 302.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.05 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 31c | 278.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 45c | 220.72$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.22 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 28c | 169.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 140$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 135.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed No | 74c | 120.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1274…c995backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 95.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 70c | 80.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 76.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 47c | 75.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 38c | 70.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5d06backed No | 16c | 67.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 44c | 67.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 23c | 63.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 23c | 63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 32c | 62.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 38c | 58.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 55.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 33c | 53.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 48.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 72c | 46.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked Yes | 59c | 34.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 34.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 59c | 32.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 42c | 32.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 27.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 58c | 26.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb44…dc60backed No | 73c | 19.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 17.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 67c | 17.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 63c | 16.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 76c | 15.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 76c | 14.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.