Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31f172e733521003d301e9b113195a19b5d304008c561140bc7b58b9de7881cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 64c | 1,247$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.82 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 589.28$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 31c | 309.49$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.53 | 789 | 27.9%220 W · 569 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 74c | 202.51$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 23c | 197.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.3 | 912 | 28.9%264 W · 648 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 10c | 195.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 45c | 190$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 45c | 173.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.21 | 792 | 40.9%324 W · 468 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 62c | 144.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…c655backed No | 26c | 143.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 71c | 139.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 135.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 1,300 | 54.2%704 W · 596 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed No | 34c | 110.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 103.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…9702backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 75c | 97.72$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 95.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 58c | 95.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 86.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked Yes | 77c | 86.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 72c | 83.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 412 | 51.7%213 W · 199 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 81.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 51c | 80.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 64c | 78.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 47c | 76.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 1,908 | 55.6%1,060 W · 848 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 76.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 29c | 67.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 29c | 65.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 36c | 64.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 68c | 58.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…642fbacked Yes | 60c | 54.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 53.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 80c | 50.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 41c | 49.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 59c | 47.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 34c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 470 | 63.6%299 W · 171 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 32c | 45.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 845 | 35.9%303 W · 542 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 60c | 45.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 44.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 37c | 42.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed No | 53c | 41.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 34c | 40.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 66c | 36.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 52c | 35.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 73c | 35.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7e…3de7backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 66c | 33.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 619 | 29.4%182 W · 437 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 77c | 31.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…af76backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 29.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 28.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 54c | 26.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…4f96backed Yes | 79c | 24.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed No | 67c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 60c | 21.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8b…58b9backed Yes | 60c | 21.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 75c | 21.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 61c | 18.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 75c | 15.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 546 | 58.8%321 W · 225 L | +47.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.