Mls · resolved market
Will Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12378ef45c3faab70e4536ef99187982d700bc181788d0ebac4ff0785db58446
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 24c | 10,570$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,579.83 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 7,451$5,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.51 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 77c | 6,626$5,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.57 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 5,930$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.68 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 3,348$2,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.8 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 78c | 3,304$2,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.05 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 23c | 1,278$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.22 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 22c | 1,191$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 21c | 632.06$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.01 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed Yes | 25c | 560.69$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…00f1backed Yes | 24c | 434.81$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 413.05$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 77c | 371.46$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 76c | 345.95$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 22c | 330.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 79c | 319.2$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 291.4$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 75c | 270$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 22c | 227.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…b109backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 70cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…c701backed Yes | 26c | 193.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 21c | 175.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 77c | 170$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed No | 78c | 135.68$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 65c | 135.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Yes | 29c | 125.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 24c | 91.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 77c | 79.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Yes | 25c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 22c | 64.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…3bb8backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…17f9backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked No | 78c | 54.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked No | 64c | 26.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked No | 77c | 22.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…c338backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 76c | 13.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?this page
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-07-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.