Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1263e6083ad0c96e4ebc4d1bb252876bccfb7e620335ea27730798443111364d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 38c | 345.38$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 31c | 332.11$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 33c | 328.06$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad3…60c2backed No | 66c | 274.3$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 252.21$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 178.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 34c | 165.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 62c | 149.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 143.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 141.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 138$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed No | 74c | 135.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 134.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 44c | 132.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 78c | 129.49$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 43c | 118.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 107.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 106.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 97.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dce…1ae5backed No | 53c | 94.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 60cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 66c | 87.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 59c | 86.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 84.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 76.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 53c | 61.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 80c | 53.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 60c | 51.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 64c | 49.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 48.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 45.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 69c | 43.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 48c | 41.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 41.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 35.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 42c | 35.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 46c | 32.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 32.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 31.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 28.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…cf5bbacked No | 53c | 26.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 24.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 66c | 21.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 66c | 19.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 59c | 17.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 61c | 17.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C or below on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.