Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 143.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12734e2a4ef6d73dc5a90db775d716672e8a504193683755cb9d94fc9f242ff0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7caf…058bbacked Over | 54c | 61,136$33,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,013.66 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Under | 46c | 50,000$23,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,000 | 302 | 49.3%149 W · 153 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 54c | 13,150$7,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,048.5 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Under | 46c | 11,111$5,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,999.94 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…c255backed Under | 46c | 8,591$3,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,638.87 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 53c | 6,070$3,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,216.69 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 47c | 5,250$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,782.5 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 4,865$2,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,612.52 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 51c | 3,010$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.91 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.02 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 47c | 684.23$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.64 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea1…9569backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Over | 54c | 258.17$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.41 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -9.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | +14.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 46c | 188.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…c147backed Under | 54c | 188.83$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Over | 54c | 132$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Over | 54c | 89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d5…5872backed Over | 54c | 55.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…4773backed Over | 54c | 55.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…57ffbacked Over | 54c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 47c | 27.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 143.5this page
- Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Appalachian State MountaineersAppalachian State Mountaineers won
- Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 142.5Under won
- Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 144.5Under won
- Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 145.5Under won
- Spread: Appalachian State Mountaineers (-14.5)Appalachian State Mountaineers won
- Spread: Appalachian State Mountaineers (-15.5)Appalachian State Mountaineers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.