TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Appalachian State Mountaineers (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Appalachian State Mountaineersof Appalachian State Mountaineers, Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$233,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$347,858

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,037 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1af1…0f7bbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers58c94,486$54,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,708.412138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks42c64,404$27,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,049.5921754.8%119 W · 98 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks43c12,281$5,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,280.74454.5%24 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks42c10,460$4,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,346.755,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Appalachian State Mountaineers54c6,000$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,759.9935151.9%182 W · 169 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks46c4,874$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.9335452.3%185 W · 169 L+17.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks43c2,651$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.3512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Appalachian State Mountaineers54c2,424$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.324451.2%125 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks49c1,856$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.3589850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks43c1,491$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.015,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers80c1,040$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.842580%20 W · 5 L+8.2wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+136.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks46c682.47$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.559442.6%40 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks42c561.59$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.574,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051,22727.8%341 W · 886 L-0.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks48c417.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050546.9%237 W · 268 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Appalachian State Mountaineers52c379.17$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1826149.2%30 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks45c346.4$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8875447.1%355 W · 399 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Appalachian State Mountaineers55c239$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.556753.7%36 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5eed…2f6ebacked Appalachian State Mountaineers49c215$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c206.82$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919045.6%41 W · 49 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8882048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x799c…405fbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks51c180$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks45c166.67$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7521443.9%94 W · 120 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks42c146.15$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.381,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2905…18a9backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c131.18$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.724955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f3e…380cbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks69c125$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.23554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba5…26febacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c122.68$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.985950.8%30 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ad9…6044backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks51c120$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c118.55$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0217943.6%78 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3f…38f3backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c102.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbb…fd36backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks79c101.55$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc3a…e1f0backed Appalachian State Mountaineers51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.526848.1%129 W · 139 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed9…3cdebacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456556.9%37 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks47c90.68$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.543,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ad…8b71backed Appalachian State Mountaineers57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.728940.4%36 W · 53 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Appalachian State Mountaineers58c86.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6236535.9%131 W · 234 L+1.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a8…8a9dbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c85.75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.737251.4%37 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks43c85.27$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5515947.2%75 W · 84 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Appalachian State Mountaineers31c85$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6548051%245 W · 235 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ec8…82eabacked Appalachian State Mountaineers49c85$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011449.1%56 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Appalachian State Mountaineers21c75.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.261,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c73.15$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.418750.6%44 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd4…83bdbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c71.76$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5730%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.731537.8%119 W · 196 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Appalachian State Mountaineers63c70$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.12,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers67c62$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.591,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c60.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7310049%49 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ea…066ebacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.87957%45 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks46c58.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0419657.1%112 W · 84 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks46c58.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0418656.5%105 W · 81 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc079…8881backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks42c50.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.116349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf01…b14cbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks50c48.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.374055%22 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks46c48.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.221059.5%125 W · 85 L+17.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xedc2…e450backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks45c48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0af2…3b47backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c45.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.22650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd289…98b5backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks45c43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.352441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x664b…00b3backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks45c39.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6711159.5%66 W · 45 L+10.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks51c39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8925436.6%93 W · 161 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba48…907cbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers68c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.76560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks43c36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.631666.1%209 W · 107 L+24.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x879d…8c58backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks45c36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xede6…89c4backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks45c36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.23066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc697…fb66backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf861…1d14backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c33.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.786755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae69…0c24backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks45c31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.952560%15 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x407f…d62abacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c30.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-60%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks48c27.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310058%58 W · 42 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x118b…7f7cbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c26.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks45c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks42c24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0829442.9%126 W · 168 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks43c23.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.321342.3%90 W · 123 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks43c23.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0614846.6%69 W · 79 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba69…b2debacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c23.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.274951%25 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e30…bbfebacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c23.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.191330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x985e…6894backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks44c23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.123161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Appalachian State Mountaineers52c19.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.134,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.