Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1285041a4cb756d3b5a7a2c9e2491bd0a6815c25b1bd54e7d8f307587bfdea3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.98 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 29c | 2,739$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.24 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0069…9d53backed Yes | 34c | 2,235$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 69c | 1,949$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.58 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…b5f8backed Yes | 34c | 1,601$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…75f5backed No | 72c | 1,568$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.56 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x651f…c190backed Yes | 31c | 1,500$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 31c | 1,182$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.29 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 69c | 1,155$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.07 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.17 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x679a…aa00backed Yes | 33c | 590.91$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 12c | 550$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 70c | 505.67$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.12 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…14adbacked Yes | 32c | 466.25$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…1dbcbacked No | 70c | 318.79$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…f555backed No | 70c | 228.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 182 | 60.4%110 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked No | 69c | 217.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -14.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x70da…2cf2backed No | 71c | 210.54$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…c1f3backed Yes | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe286…7735backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 68c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e79…2bb8backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4019…8e5ebacked No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f6…8afbbacked Yes | 31c | 145.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…c492backed No | 70c | 103.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68bb…812cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacab…a69bbacked No | 69c | 87.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb949…f6fcbacked Yes | 31c | 80.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 69c | 80.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1673…e40dbacked No | 70c | 72.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…fa22backed No | 69c | 66.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…18bbbacked Yes | 33c | 63.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…a058backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…b433backed No | 70c | 58.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 32c | 54.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 327 | 36.4%119 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…4d7dbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf45f…208abacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 34c | 44.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…ff3abacked No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…acacbacked No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957d…2261backed Yes | 32c | 36.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…96dcbacked No | 68c | 34.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45c…40e9backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bb…0a4cbacked No | 75c | 33.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d58…064bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…3c9ebacked Yes | 37c | 27.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa?this page
- Will Aston Villa beat Manchester United?No won
- Will the match between Aston Villa and Manchester United end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.