Premier League · resolved market
Will the match between Aston Villa and Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcf5b0acc8fc6cd8c238e42cfe2819854b2d1faaa8b3ea751c668d5b1cf03d71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 22c | 1,655$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.54 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed No | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 72c | 960.35$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…2193backed Yes | 26c | 721.69$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…bb64backed No | 74c | 372.12$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.37 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…ad5ebacked Yes | 27c | 296.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…5d49backed No | 76c | 246.16$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f6…8afbbacked No | 74c | 198.42$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 24c | 191.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.26 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7934…afdebacked No | 75c | 145.12$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d90…d769backed Yes | 27c | 144.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 74c | 143.28$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.03 | 245 | 66.1%162 W · 83 L | +24.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…24abbacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 75c | 119.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 54c | 119.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…1e04backed Yes | 27c | 117.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe7…ee35backed No | 75c | 116.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 27c | 93.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff4…2b03backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…576fbacked Yes | 77c | 70.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…44d5backed No | 75c | 54.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d71…a88abacked Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed No | 74c | 36.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bff…15a7backed Yes | 38c | 29.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cca…aa4ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Aston Villa and Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa beat Manchester United?No won
- Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.