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South American Leagues · resolved market

Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-10-22?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,965

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,083 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes36c75,000$27,000 inLost-$26,999.9732242.5%137 W · 185 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed No60c56,137$33,528 inWon+$22,609.28955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No80c17,393$13,832 inWon+$3,561.058,17548.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L+27.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae6…c165backed Yes58c1,707$983 inLost-$982.721040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88de…1091backed No43c1,600$688 inWon+$91214630.8%45 W · 101 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No42c1,183$497 inWon+$685.950661.3%310 W · 196 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked No44c404.16$178 inWon+$226.6411159.5%66 W · 45 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No43c400$172 inWon+$2282962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No43c400$172 inWon+$22863644.7%284 W · 352 L-2.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Yes56c376$211 inLost-$210.569554.7%52 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0281…34e7backed Yes56c350.13$195 inLost-$194.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes58c172.41$100 inLost-$10051654.8%283 W · 233 L+0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed No44c162$71 inWon+$90.7211549.6%57 W · 58 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes58c108.05$63 inLost-$62.674420.5%9 W · 35 L-5.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-48.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9a75…ed14backed Yes57c70.18$40 inLost-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes56c66$37 inLost-$36.9631827%86 W · 232 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2704…b9aebacked Yes56c50$28 inLost-$2820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked No44c48.13$21 inWon+$26.9581651.6%421 W · 395 L+12.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No43c46.24$20 inWon+$26.362920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes57c40$23 inLost-$22.81136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No43c27.94$12 inWon+$15.9310651.9%55 W · 51 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9b1…6dd1backed Yes55c22$12 inLost-$12.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x624a…287cbacked Yes56c21.43$12 inLost-$12933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Yes53c21.28$11 inLost-$11.286944.9%31 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.