NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x128a878445dce051599b5af27313f089dfbfcf4a4d54cb6034b46be3d1baf5e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Texans, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Titans | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Texans | 55c | 7,000$3,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,120 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Titans | 45c | 7,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Texans | 49c | 4,259$2,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,175.45 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Texans | 48c | 4,118$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150.95 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Titans | 52c | 2,519$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Titans | 50c | 2,050$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6d23backed Texans | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Texans | 45c | 1,863$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.25 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Texans | 49c | 1,528$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.78 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Titans | 51c | 1,500$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Titans | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Titans | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Texans | 47c | 636.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.71 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Titans | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c62…fe5abacked Titans | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Titans | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Titans | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…ce1cbacked Titans | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Titans | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Titans | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Titans | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Titans | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Titans | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…1faebacked Titans | 54c | 93.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Texans | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Titans | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Titans | 54c | 57.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6849…fbdfbacked Titans | 54c | 48.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7777…f2bbbacked Texans | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead9…cc72backed Titans | 52c | 38.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Texans | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Texans won
- Titans vs. TexansTexans won
- Titans vs. Texans: O/U 39.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.