Tennis · resolved market
HSBC Championships: Rune vs. McDonald
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x128af2dce24e7f749d86a3c3975da192952cbd75b6b31a4590485aa7e6f918e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Runeof Rune, McDonald
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed McDonald | 23c | 8,928$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.32 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked McDonald | 13c | 6,701$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.45 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed McDonald | 31c | 5,075$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.57 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked McDonald | 42c | 4,773$2,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,011.58 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked McDonald | 42c | 2,932$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.65 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rune | 59c | 2,210$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.2 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rune | 70c | 2,001$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.02 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked McDonald | 30c | 2,000$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Rune | 52c | 1,927$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.33 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed McDonald | 29c | 1,566$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.34 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Rune | 75c | 1,390$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.43 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Rune | 72c | 1,053$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.96 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…3303backed Rune | 54c | 750.24$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Rune | 68c | 699.99$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…bb91backed Rune | 78c | 581.23$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.04 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed McDonald | 30c | 432.26$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed McDonald | 8c | 422$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed McDonald | 51c | 419.31$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.04 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Rune | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Rune | 60c | 152.83$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Rune | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rune | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Rune | 67c | 132.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Rune | 72c | 109.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x545b…b64ebacked Rune | 76c | 101.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Rune | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rune | 70c | 78.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked McDonald | 45c | 68.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed McDonald | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Rune | 50c | 50.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed McDonald | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Rune | 71c | 44.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Rune | 71c | 40.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rune | 68c | 34.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…e6a5backed McDonald | 32c | 34.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…f7edbacked Rune | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…fa84backed Rune | 71c | 34.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Rune | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.