World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1291031386964946df46ea7f620ba97959e22ef9f63c99042f035ff0fdbc55c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 197.79$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 12c | 162.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 111.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 110.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ff…f3e6backed Yes | 18c | 108.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bb…ef39backed Yes | 31c | 96.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 90.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 87.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 76.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 25c | 64.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 64.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 64.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x448e…5609backed Yes | 32c | 60.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 73c | 59.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 74c | 57.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 30c | 53.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 53.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 25c | 52.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 72c | 51.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 78c | 48.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 44.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 35.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 28.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 28.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 26.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 22.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 17.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 71c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 14.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.