South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-11-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12b1fc5b26ab59a80f5ebd70ce024e1581cf0ca72b55ba674d7dac4c416c47cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 52c | 9,474$4,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,926.59 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 48c | 6,078$2,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,142.82 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 67c | 5,108$3,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,408.19 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 52c | 3,858$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.39 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 1,824$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.08 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 1,770$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.83 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Yes | 25c | 1,023$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.7 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 34c | 801.65$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.74 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 38c | 690$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.46 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae6…c165backed Yes | 52c | 650$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 33c | 525$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…5b1fbacked Yes | 49c | 510.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 50c | 419.67$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.97 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…4e8dbacked Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 54c | 340$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.4 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed No | 49c | 304$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 48c | 292.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.19 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 50c | 230.62$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 185.89$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.27 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 52c | 181.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 57c | 172.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 47c | 171$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked No | 53c | 135.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 57c | 132.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 50c | 119$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 51c | 111$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed No | 53c | 108.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35b7…c701backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 22c | 89.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 52c | 83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 17c | 62.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a1d7backed Yes | 28c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +251.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked No | 51c | 49.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Yes | 50c | 41.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…58dcbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 41c | 30.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf4…f5dcbacked Yes | 49c | 27.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +6.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 60c | 22.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Yes | 49c | 20.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-11-26?this page
- Will FC Juárez vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Juárez win on 2025-11-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.