Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12b6dac1062669f72db3c4517a4fa619380e3271f76b2050233ee44265f9fae2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 36c | 1,117$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.77 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 358.38$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.84 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 337.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 299.35$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.88 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 61c | 212.78$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 54c | 190.92$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 34c | 170.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 168.85$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 74c | 168.14$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 40c | 162.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 45c | 162.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 155.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 144.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 135.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 122.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.07 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 119.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 61c | 113.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 38c | 111.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 105.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 39c | 100.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 98.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 86.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 68c | 82.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 22c | 81.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 21c | 78.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 71.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 70.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 69.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 71c | 44.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 42.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 40.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 34c | 39.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…3eb7backed Yes | 71c | 38.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 34.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 72c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 38c | 30.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 47c | 29.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…c740backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 28.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 27.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 56c | 26.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…cd79backed No | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 54c | 20.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…02cbbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 19.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c15…ee6cbacked Yes | 64c | 18.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 61c | 16.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 62c | 16.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 64c | 15.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.