Will Han Dong-hoon win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12c8bd9663adc1ea11f46ca0b5873173db70c6afb3694115c0005f21e757acdd

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,070,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $306,076

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,070,478 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x44bf…ea02backed Yes	0c	259,269$568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$568.16	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9464…bd9fbacked Yes	0c	105,686$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.37	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-4.7wins	-0.22per pick	27cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2876…c4b2backed Yes	0c	75,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	15cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbef6…f2f9backed Yes	1c	57,937$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.53	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+2.5wins	+0.21per pick	13cpaid	+647.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes	0c	53,773$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.15	412	1%4 W · 408 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+171.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	0c	34,891$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.67	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f6…13d9backed Yes	1c	26,200$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4de7…2d9abacked Yes	0c	22,821$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.8	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+2.1wins	+0.16per pick	30cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes	0c	22,032$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.37	452	1.1%5 W · 447 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+156.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes	0c	19,715$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.88	135	25.2%34 W · 101 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c8…a348backed Yes	1c	18,228$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.14	44	34.1%15 W · 29 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes	0c	17,213$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.43	86	40.7%35 W · 51 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes	0c	15,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	78	28.2%22 W · 56 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf18d…9863backed Yes	1c	11,719$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.85	78	16.7%13 W · 65 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b2a…3111backed Yes	0c	9,632$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.9	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	1c	7,437$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.39	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes	1c	7,411$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.31	85	29.4%25 W · 60 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…c2cebacked Yes	0c	6,641$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53cf…7d67backed Yes	0c	6,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6091…972bbacked Yes	0c	6,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.2wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7908…b249backed Yes	1c	6,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa066…bfd4backed Yes	0c	5,514$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.05	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,268$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.65	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206c…4c2ebacked Yes	0c	4,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…c928backed Yes	1c	4,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+46.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad99…ffd9backed Yes	0c	4,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	45	40%18 W · 27 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a1…e0d3backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Han Dong-hoon win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event