TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Barletta: Andrea Guerrieri vs Maks Kasnikowski

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Andrea Guerrieriof Andrea Guerrieri, Maks Kasnikowski
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,247
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,311

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,247 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd48d…5182backed Andrea Guerrieri44c3,949$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,215.2224558.8%144 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Maks Kasnikowski55c3,271$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,793.62,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Andrea Guerrieri34c2,999$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,975.912,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Maks Kasnikowski64c2,767$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.092,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Maks Kasnikowski52c1,228$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.384,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Andrea Guerrieri25c1,169$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.017,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Maks Kasnikowski1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131389.4%13 W · 125 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed Andrea Guerrieri37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63026045.4%118 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Andrea Guerrieri65c744.6$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.066,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Maks Kasnikowski60c629.32$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.593,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Andrea Guerrieri21c611.82$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.611,37916.4%226 W · 1,153 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Maks Kasnikowski63c487.46$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.628,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Andrea Guerrieri43c453.03$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.921,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Andrea Guerrieri41c443.26$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9457349.6%284 W · 289 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Maks Kasnikowski20c401.97$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.712,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Andrea Guerrieri34c400.74$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.126,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86d0…904ebacked Maks Kasnikowski58c368.72$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5223634.7%82 W · 154 L-37.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-45.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Andrea Guerrieri40c361.5$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.91,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c19…859cbacked Maks Kasnikowski60c325.33$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.24555.6%25 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked Maks Kasnikowski73c301.52$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.699764.9%63 W · 34 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Maks Kasnikowski57c299.16$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.941,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Andrea Guerrieri24c249.1$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.311,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Maks Kasnikowski74c212.62$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.0211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Andrea Guerrieri31c210.02$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.118,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c82…4e09backed Andrea Guerrieri41c199.04$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.443740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Andrea Guerrieri31c191.72$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.331,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Andrea Guerrieri24c186.66$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.591,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Andrea Guerrieri32c185.76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.242,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Maks Kasnikowski56c182.73$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.337,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Maks Kasnikowski74c177.5$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.734,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c9f…dc67backed Maks Kasnikowski18c174.05$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.331827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Maks Kasnikowski53c172.41$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.387963.3%50 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02fd…c162backed Maks Kasnikowski69c160.67$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.333256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Andrea Guerrieri40c139.59$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.8930530.8%94 W · 211 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Maks Kasnikowski68c135.08$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.971,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Andrea Guerrieri35c131.48$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.971,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Maks Kasnikowski75c131.33$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.584963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Maks Kasnikowski53c120$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1594549.6%469 W · 476 L-23.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Andrea Guerrieri70c111.95$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5843067%288 W · 142 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe10f…c59fbacked Maks Kasnikowski76c111.53$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7610474%77 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7bb…2753backed Maks Kasnikowski59c107.46$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.424951.4%128 W · 121 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-5.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed Maks Kasnikowski77c106.93$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.279462.8%59 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf97e…aa3fbacked Andrea Guerrieri42c101.35$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.789757.7%56 W · 41 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x363e…ae45backed Andrea Guerrieri70c98.2$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4611650.9%59 W · 57 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…bea7backed Maks Kasnikowski65c97.9$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.641315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa24f…7c58backed Maks Kasnikowski54c87.42$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4410242.2%43 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d29…c9eebacked Maks Kasnikowski69c80.3$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.267154.9%39 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Maks Kasnikowski60c64.73$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0571165.1%463 W · 248 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefd…cbc2backed Maks Kasnikowski61c61.75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Maks Kasnikowski56c56.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6299056%554 W · 436 L+32.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Maks Kasnikowski75c55.43$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.771,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Andrea Guerrieri40c53.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1249142.8%210 W · 281 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Maks Kasnikowski59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f60…3a69backed Andrea Guerrieri26c50.36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.342263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9c3…079fbacked Maks Kasnikowski57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.589364.4%575 W · 318 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Maks Kasnikowski78c48.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.211,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Maks Kasnikowski78c47.62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9237153.9%200 W · 171 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0843…293dbacked Andrea Guerrieri37c45.19$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.694551.1%23 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed Maks Kasnikowski60c44.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.97057.1%40 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Maks Kasnikowski72c44.56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.295846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Maks Kasnikowski77c43.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.381,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Maks Kasnikowski57c42.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.437,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11e1…8d38backed Maks Kasnikowski73c34.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257273.6%53 W · 19 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+10.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2098…0c0bbacked Maks Kasnikowski60c33.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.029062.2%56 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Maks Kasnikowski58c33.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.351,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x997b…641bbacked Maks Kasnikowski60c32.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.523265.6%21 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Maks Kasnikowski62c31.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.542,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Maks Kasnikowski79c31.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.522,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Andrea Guerrieri39c30.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.342,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65ed…ae89backed Maks Kasnikowski71c30.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.411060%6 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Maks Kasnikowski75c29.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1241658.7%244 W · 172 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Maks Kasnikowski58c29.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.959253.5%317 W · 275 L+22.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5da…7f7fbacked Andrea Guerrieri47c29.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Andrea Guerrieri57c26.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3245051.8%233 W · 217 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa5…b820backed Maks Kasnikowski60c26.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.73742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb155…9111backed Maks Kasnikowski78c24.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.34841.7%20 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Maks Kasnikowski59c24.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6352457.4%301 W · 223 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Andrea Guerrieri69c24.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0f…8b08backed Maks Kasnikowski66c24.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1625265.1%164 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…9065backed Maks Kasnikowski60c24.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.641850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe46d…8b87backed Andrea Guerrieri43c24.15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.766550.8%33 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Maks Kasnikowski59c24.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2274955.1%413 W · 336 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Maks Kasnikowski75c22.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.035660.7%34 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Maks Kasnikowski57c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4735559.4%211 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bbc…51c7backed Maks Kasnikowski68c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Maks Kasnikowski60c21.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.921,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x523d…7648backed Maks Kasnikowski60c20.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce06…c99dbacked Maks Kasnikowski75c20.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.286365.1%41 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x806b…cccabacked Maks Kasnikowski74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.83246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fe…507abacked Maks Kasnikowski59c19.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.74761.7%29 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Maks Kasnikowski59c19.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.517349.3%36 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x926c…5d40backed Maks Kasnikowski72c18.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.26566.2%43 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Maks Kasnikowski59c17.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5536349.9%181 W · 182 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Maks Kasnikowski68c16.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9923758.6%139 W · 98 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc55a…7281backed Andrea Guerrieri70c15.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.511936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Maks Kasnikowski76c14.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4248652.1%253 W · 233 L-1.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Maks Kasnikowski77c14.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4261752.5%324 W · 293 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.