World Politics · resolved market
Will William Clouston get second place in the Clacton by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12e830951bd827e17b0ed6cb241db15d51142b0c4dc8ec11f5164557670d2626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 7c | 1,100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 9c | 504.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 8c | 499.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 404$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…22b3backed Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 284.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 213$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…421abacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will William Clouston get second place in the Clacton by-election?this page
- Will Andrew Pemberton get second place in the Clacton by-election?No won
- Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Yes won
- Will Giles Watling get second place in the Clacton by-election?No won
- Will John Stevens get second place in the Clacton by-election?No won
- Will Laurence Fox get second place in the Clacton by-election?No won
- Will Matthew Bensilum get second place in the Clacton by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?No won
- Will Tony Mack get second place in the Clacton by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.