Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x130e91edc494fa2b616bdc55347c544839a7d0127008d45f50fc2ade1e3d5e83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 73c | 437.17$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.9 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 63c | 345.97$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.06 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 18c | 217.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 217.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 39c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 189.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 17c | 183.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 76c | 169.84$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.24 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 30c | 168$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 72c | 150.3$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.37 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…8cdebacked No | 25c | 131.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 16c | 124.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 123.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 110.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 49c | 103.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 66c | 99.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 50c | 79.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 17c | 78.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 33c | 77.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 15c | 76.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…6fe6backed Yes | 25c | 57.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 34c | 56.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 43c | 50.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…8034backed Yes | 21c | 48.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 45.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 24c | 43.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 79c | 42.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 25c | 40.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 62c | 38.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…753dbacked No | 71c | 36.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 35.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 34.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 51c | 33.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 78c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 67c | 28.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 58c | 28.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 26.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 42c | 25.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 23.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 22.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 71c | 15.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.