Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b9c3abeacd41e1469f6dd454ff9e05c0b0de4e7c6782d4e1bb26b9af35b177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 70c | 827.19$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.8 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 33c | 507.89$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 492.48$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.14 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 77c | 440.05$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.95 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 62c | 276.04$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 19c | 249.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.31 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 239.6$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 32c | 220.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.37 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 204.49$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 60c | 202.1$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 28c | 163.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.21 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 36c | 161.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 65c | 142.11$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 60c | 135.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 54c | 130.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 43c | 129$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 124.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed No | 9c | 110.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.13 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 27c | 101.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 52c | 99.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 22c | 76.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 69c | 66.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 62c | 64.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 66c | 60.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 56.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 46.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 26c | 45.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 46c | 42.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed Yes | 69c | 41.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 70c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 61c | 38.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 75c | 37.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 68c | 34.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 65c | 33.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 54c | 32.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 35c | 30.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 40c | 30.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 43c | 30.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…791bbacked Yes | 70c | 29.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 45c | 29.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 61c | 28.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 47c | 27.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 76c | 24.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 62c | 24.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 60c | 23.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed Yes | 68c | 21.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b6…886ebacked Yes | 71c | 21.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 50c | 20.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 50c | 20.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 56c | 18.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 72c | 17.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.