World Politics · resolved market
Will Evandro Leitão win the 2024 Fortaleza mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x130ef97f397d6c2ad1e6483e555284882bde42a9782f24a25a36eeacaa62db0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $374,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $372,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $374,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 2c | 20,500$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b5…10b3backed Yes | 31c | 4,200$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,898 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…0573backed Yes | 32c | 4,200$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,856 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…7cbebacked Yes | 31c | 4,100$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,829 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb634…9f6ebacked Yes | 31c | 4,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d2…0b97backed Yes | 31c | 3,888$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,682.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…050cbacked Yes | 31c | 3,800$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…4278backed Yes | 31c | 3,700$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,553 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15d…7344backed Yes | 31c | 3,644$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…0312backed Yes | 31c | 3,171$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,189.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 6c | 2,998$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 15cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab9…8d94backed No | 69c | 2,200$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5234…f516backed No | 69c | 2,100$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…6da8backed No | 68c | 2,100$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…eda7backed No | 69c | 2,100$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…f811backed No | 68c | 2,100$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdb…4ff1backed No | 69c | 2,100$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…b38fbacked No | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…8d30backed No | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…2c5ebacked No | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…fa87backed No | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79e4…c7cdbacked No | 69c | 1,900$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f66…36d3backed No | 69c | 1,900$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…eb1bbacked No | 70c | 1,888$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…77cbbacked Yes | 32c | 1,888$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 28cpaid | +273.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8630…0f08backed Yes | 30c | 1,888$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e35…b10dbacked No | 68c | 1,888$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e87…7ba6backed No | 69c | 1,888$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…ade7backed No | 69c | 1,800$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d06…fbc4backed No | 69c | 1,800$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…ae31backed No | 69c | 1,699$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…7d29backed Yes | 30c | 1,699$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd932…0e47backed Yes | 32c | 1,675$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 6c | 1,666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 16cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked No | 69c | 1,620$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x284c…23e3backed No | 66c | 1,560$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58bd…56e7backed Yes | 34c | 1,560$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf6…ac7dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,555$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…137cbacked No | 70c | 1,555$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…7496backed No | 69c | 1,544$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…a834backed Yes | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ea…3ac9backed No | 70c | 1,488$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…d733backed Yes | 30c | 1,488$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7880…cb27backed No | 67c | 1,456$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…58e9backed Yes | 33c | 1,456$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 28cpaid | +278.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02e3…9f98backed Yes | 31c | 1,403$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3707…a17ebacked No | 69c | 1,203$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 31c | 1,103$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3562…f9f5backed Yes | 31c | 950$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…e322backed Yes | 32c | 800$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b67…76b5backed No | 69c | 800$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf1…b3afbacked Yes | 35c | 717.17$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…99cabacked Yes | 36c | 716.73$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…9e64backed No | 69c | 700$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…79aabacked No | 69c | 700$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…7a8cbacked No | 68c | 553.64$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e3…7718backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe147…0b98backed No | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…ae90backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…1a98backed Yes | 39c | 371.28$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…82bcbacked Yes | 41c | 370.86$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.34 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 71c | 366.92$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.73 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…bf09backed Yes | 31c | 336.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…491fbacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x163b…fddfbacked No | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 56c | 286$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.1 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 250.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…4114backed No | 69c | 250$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9274…076fbacked No | 68c | 219$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…b059backed Yes | 32c | 219$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…ceffbacked Yes | 25c | 211$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0162…3a96backed No | 75c | 211$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf2…c3b1backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4539…736abacked No | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…aa80backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 68c | 135.42$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 31c | 124.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…d7f5backed Yes | 33c | 122$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f1…5d68backed No | 67c | 122$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 69c | 117.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 117.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 30c | 113.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…da00backed No | 69c | 113$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…e021backed No | 70c | 112$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e9…fde6backed Yes | 30c | 112$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec2…ec8abacked Yes | 27c | 109$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…0836backed No | 73c | 109$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…6e8bbacked Yes | 27c | 109$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 28cpaid | +263.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc9…0d76backed No | 73c | 109$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 105.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb65c…0f0dbacked No | 73c | 101$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…4381backed Yes | 27c | 101$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…53b8backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…090abacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…c2f4backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5094…9050backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…994bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f6…342dbacked No | 61c | 92.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5e53backed No | 68c | 91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb7…239cbacked Yes | 32c | 91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Evandro Leitão win the 2024 Fortaleza mayoral election?this page
- Will André Fernandes win the 2024 Fortaleza mayoral election?No won
- Will another candidate win the 2024 Fortaleza mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.