TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Evandro Leitão win the 2024 Fortaleza mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$374,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$372,598

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $374,205 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c29…d822backed No2c20,500$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4458921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+105.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b5…10b3backed Yes31c4,200$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8981100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c91…0573backed Yes32c4,200$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8561100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36ae…7cbebacked Yes31c4,100$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8291100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb634…9f6ebacked Yes31c4,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7601100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7d2…0b97backed Yes31c3,888$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,682.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4656…050cbacked Yes31c3,800$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6221100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6da6…4278backed Yes31c3,700$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5531100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf15d…7344backed Yes31c3,644$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,514.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x542a…0312backed Yes31c3,171$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.06616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed No6c2,998$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.88955.6%5 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.40per pick15cpaid+236.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8ab9…8d94backed No69c2,200$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5234…f516backed No69c2,100$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb7…6da8backed No68c2,100$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x475f…eda7backed No69c2,100$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f38…f811backed No68c2,100$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bdb…4ff1backed No69c2,100$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…b38fbacked No69c2,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c22…8d30backed No69c2,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d06…2c5ebacked No69c2,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00ad…fa87backed No69c2,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79e4…c7cdbacked No69c1,900$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f66…36d3backed No69c1,900$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9e…eb1bbacked No70c1,888$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefc8…77cbbacked Yes32c1,888$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.73per pick28cpaid+273.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8630…0f08backed Yes30c1,888$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e35…b10dbacked No68c1,888$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e87…7ba6backed No69c1,888$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff2…ade7backed No69c1,800$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d06…fbc4backed No69c1,800$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda44…ae31backed No69c1,699$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.31250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc1d…7d29backed Yes30c1,699$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd932…0e47backed Yes32c1,675$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1391100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e6…50aebacked No6c1,666$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.961145.5%5 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick16cpaid+149.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c72…ee4cbacked No69c1,620$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x284c…23e3backed No66c1,560$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58bd…56e7backed Yes34c1,560$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf6…ac7dbacked Yes30c1,555$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc5a…137cbacked No70c1,555$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa40e…7496backed No69c1,544$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2474…a834backed Yes31c1,500$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0352100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+217.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ea…3ac9backed No70c1,488$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8fb…d733backed Yes30c1,488$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7880…cb27backed No67c1,456$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf1…58e9backed Yes33c1,456$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.73per pick28cpaid+278.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02e3…9f98backed Yes31c1,403$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3707…a17ebacked No69c1,203$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes31c1,103$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.791353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+35.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3562…f9f5backed Yes31c950$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6672…e322backed Yes32c800$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b67…76b5backed No69c800$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf1…b3afbacked Yes35c717.17$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.21922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e67…99cabacked Yes36c716.73$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbcf…9e64backed No69c700$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5e7…79aabacked No69c700$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48320%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f1e…7a8cbacked No68c553.64$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82e3…7718backed No67c500$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe147…0b98backed No68c500$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0521…ae90backed Yes33c500$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3352100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8217…1a98backed Yes39c371.28$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17eb…82bcbacked Yes41c370.86$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.342568%17 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+22.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No71c366.92$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7316744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x937b…bf09backed Yes31c336.5$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+62.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5170…491fbacked Yes31c300$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2071100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x163b…fddfbacked No68c300$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No56c286$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.17451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No7c250.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35cd…4114backed No69c250$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9274…076fbacked No68c219$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe83…b059backed Yes32c219$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ca…ceffbacked Yes25c211$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid+33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0162…3a96backed No75c211$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cf2…c3b1backed No69c200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4539…736abacked No69c150$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…aa80backed No69c150$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No68c135.42$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1810131.7%32 W · 69 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes31c124.45$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.781650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b4c…d7f5backed Yes33c122$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+51.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x15f1…5d68backed No67c122$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed No69c117.48$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.695036%18 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c117.29$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.31,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes30c113.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.419721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc8…da00backed No69c113$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde76…e021backed No70c112$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67e9…fde6backed Yes30c112$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec2…ec8abacked Yes27c109$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c5…0836backed No73c109$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5720%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1b9…6e8bbacked Yes27c109$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.73per pick28cpaid+263.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dc9…0d76backed No73c109$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5720%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No66c105.41$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3657636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb65c…0f0dbacked No73c101$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.73250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+92.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7504…4381backed Yes27c101$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.73250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+85.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344f…53b8backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdef…090abacked No68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed30…c2f4backed Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5094…9050backed No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b91…994bbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f6…342dbacked No61c92.06$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd487…5e53backed No68c91$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1eb7…239cbacked Yes32c91$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.