Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1310d2263351ba87cd59a3e9bb97f99448443592c0cdfee56c4c2b32a7681863
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 8,000$3,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,312.49 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 59c | 4,032$2,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.48 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Nigma Galaxy | 16c | 2,231$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.65 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Aurora | 58c | 1,315$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.23 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Nigma Galaxy | 10c | 983.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 960.08$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.27 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy | 10c | 880$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora | 63c | 790.7$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.95 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Aurora | 68c | 298.33$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 220.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Nigma Galaxy | 6c | 187$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 166.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18fe…a4a0backed Aurora | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Aurora | 68c | 157$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Aurora | 67c | 156.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7b…0cc9backed Aurora | 70c | 116.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora | 74c | 114.53$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Nigma Galaxy | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Aurora | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 99.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Nigma Galaxy | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nigma Galaxy | 17c | 58.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Aurora | 67c | 52.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Aurora | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Aurora | 68c | 49.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Aurora | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…12cabacked Aurora | 66c | 27.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Aurora | 58c | 25.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Aurora | 68c | 23.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.