Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x542b0bce260941dd0aa01505d2766e5b59a2372a7ac6783904f64af54d5026f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 9,000$3,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,089.16 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Aurora | 68c | 5,170$3,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.17 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nigma Galaxy | 0c | 3,723$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 66c | 3,207$2,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.65 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Nigma Galaxy | 17c | 1,879$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.62 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1768…e91fbacked Aurora | 77c | 1,299$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Aurora | 65c | 912.42$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.35 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Aurora | 65c | 853.85$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.85 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 704.21$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 660$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.9 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Aurora | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…f2bebacked Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 359.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…600ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 330$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Aurora | 72c | 329.5$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Aurora | 75c | 209.4$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Aurora | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 185$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Aurora | 66c | 86.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 85.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 70.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 65.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 68c | 62.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…a75bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 61.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Aurora | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Aurora | 79c | 27.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Aurora | 72c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…205fbacked Aurora | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.