Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x131ff2db822968af873b5798e0cfd0ee38fbacee39e546a88a8d8eb4e0b9819a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 2,388$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.19 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 59c | 1,744$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.61 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 48c | 1,520$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.93 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 57c | 1,148$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.89 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 52c | 1,097$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.23 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 50c | 1,083$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.98 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 546.13$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 494.95$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.78 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 55c | 396.43$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.1 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61cc…7a02backed No | 51c | 357.93$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed No | 51c | 314.02$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 52c | 310.39$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.54 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 262.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 47c | 212.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 210.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 205.5$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 168.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 167.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…20bbbacked Yes | 50c | 160.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 158.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 53c | 150.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 43c | 135.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 35c | 131.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 66c | 117.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 25c | 98.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 88.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 64c | 82.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 81.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 56c | 72.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 53c | 71.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 60c | 70.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 36c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 56c | 62.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 55.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 46c | 54.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 28c | 53.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 59c | 51.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 59c | 47.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 47c | 44.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 41c | 44.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 55c | 38.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 31c | 33.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 31.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 30.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…5bb2backed Yes | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 50c | 27.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 50c | 27.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 56c | 27.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes | 42c | 24.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 57c | 17.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…847fbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 80c | 14.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.