Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd10946b3995cdf13509c580863c2523f254501dcdec09a9e4151873764c7f59a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 838.54$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.07 | 1,464 | 58.5%857 W · 607 L | +71.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 500.11$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.45 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 416.39$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.33 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 248$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 148.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 3,046 | 33.5%1,021 W · 2,025 L | +12.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 133.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 11c | 128.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 304 | 18.8%57 W · 247 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 124.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 117.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 52c | 106.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 1,433 | 57.4%822 W · 611 L | +45.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 105.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 105.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 39c | 103.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,457 | 34.8%507 W · 950 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 89.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 86.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 84.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 1,235 | 59.7%737 W · 498 L | +35.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 79.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 79c | 77.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61cc…7a02backed Yes | 33c | 71.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…52cbbacked No | 58c | 67.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 61.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 46c | 52.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 48.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 57c | 42.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 280 | 58.2%163 W · 117 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 38.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 59c | 37.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 36.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 31.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 80c | 28.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 26.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f1…65debacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 24.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 888 | 55.7%495 W · 393 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 24.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 64c | 23.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 76c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…4421backed No | 63c | 22.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ee…6c5fbacked Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,803 | 63.2%1,140 W · 663 L | -8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…6e79backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 68c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 15.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.