Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13276173c5df11fe179ef5a4561e9f333a9a9e944fab8ed3a268bd6bcf258366
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cad…3edebacked Yes | 2c | 1,923$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…41febacked Yes | 3c | 1,005$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 576.28$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 13c | 460$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.2 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 224.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 199.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 47c | 197.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 144.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 14c | 140$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 23c | 128.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 17c | 128.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.72 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 117.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 110.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 71c | 99.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 97.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 85.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 42c | 78.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 77.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 74.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 40c | 72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 24c | 68.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 36c | 61.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 22c | 58.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 52c | 58.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 55.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 52.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 25c | 51.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 49.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 45.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 44c | 45.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 59c | 44.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 44.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 56c | 42.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 31c | 38.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 37.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 60c | 34.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 34c | 34.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 60c | 33.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 32.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 40c | 30.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 29.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 58c | 28.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 27.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 25.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 25.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 58c | 23.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 23.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 22.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 63c | 19.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.