TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,834

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,992 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No66c520.98$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.3512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed Yes34c509.68$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.5942754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes16c400.22$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.9457747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No68c342.54$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.11,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No66c255.61$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2624546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No52c213$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.685,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes32c202.42$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.081,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb38e…272bbacked Yes12c197.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.8710219.6%20 W · 82 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c197.25$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.935,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c177.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.926219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes47c169.52$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.5264446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes60c166.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.016,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No30c158.7$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.364,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes27c151.7$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.821,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No61c145.46$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5211169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes13c134.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.43,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes39c123.72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.918,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes32c116.86$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9180130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No55c116.43$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes25c115.1$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3254735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes26c114$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.122,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No78c113.33$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.41,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes54c108$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3249854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes59c104.91$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.835264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8740025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c99.36$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No59c85.55$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8760550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1049…8cc3backed No67c84.4$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.554242.9%18 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c81.7$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.739,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c80.06$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.073,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No65c79.64$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0245253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c79.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.83,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe522…8c25backed No64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503366.7%22 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes54c77.08$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0818650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No56c76.38$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8286952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No55c76.16$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4213444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes33c73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.842,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes35c71.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5714434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No66c67.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.64,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9248…6955backed Yes44c67.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.566442.2%27 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.894,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes79c62.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.192,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No67c62.64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.252,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No42c58.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6817457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes52c54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8381855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No63c52.32$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.062,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No69c50.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.711,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No66c50.28$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.181,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No71c50.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.821,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2922645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No76c49.35$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.353,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes29c45.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.671,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes50c45.08$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5837144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe584…9157backed Yes26c44.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1424531%76 W · 169 L-1.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x254a…dacbbacked No72c44.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5916950.9%86 W · 83 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.980957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4df…e6cfbacked No47c39.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1913862.3%86 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No75c39.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.582,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No66c36.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.353,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c35.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.574,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No41c33.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.674,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No68c32.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.751,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed No63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2129281.5%238 W · 54 L+27.9wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+14.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.122744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No51c29.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0937465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No66c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1697152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No46c27.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4075…cd19backed No67c26.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.345265.4%34 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bb…d53fbacked No67c25.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.924168.3%28 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No67c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.654,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked No51c24.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6223549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No73c23.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.442,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a1…ea66backed No52c22.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.655962.7%37 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No70c22.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5475546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes46c21.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7412438.7%48 W · 76 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19af…6e63backed No67c20.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.965168.6%35 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5325…4066backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No75c18.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.122,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No62c18.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.387,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc15…41febacked Yes66c18.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No72c16.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.732,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4458…f4e4backed No74c16.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-51.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.