Stocks · resolved market
Will the S&P 500 hit 7,000 by January 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1327d8d2f4e3c2eebca9454bc2a8e3503d018d84239a28b846d4498400293cb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 45c | 1,969$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.07 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 56c | 1,659$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.04 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 303.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…02f4backed Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 39cpaid | +471.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 6c | 216.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…fe90backed Yes | 53c | 78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…ee17backed No | 46c | 77.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…012cbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 41c | 35.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…1d45backed Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 67c | 30.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the S&P 500 hit 7,000 by January 28, 2026?this page
- Will the S&P 500 hit 7,000 by January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will the S&P 500 hit 7,000 by January 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.