CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x133718e9f5fbadd552a2757e449863a53f670c4b13e7cd510fbd4f5903ca92fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Legacyof Astralis, Legacy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d5c…4f26backed Astralis | 29c | 1,420$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.93 | 352 | 36.4%128 W · 224 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…cb5bbacked Legacy | 71c | 710$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.9 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed Legacy | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 209 | 58.9%123 W · 86 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Astralis | 28c | 372.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…dc15backed Astralis | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Astralis | 26c | 288.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Legacy | 80c | 273.75$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 203 | 53.2%108 W · 95 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Legacy | 70c | 174.38$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Legacy | 70c | 136.67$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf0…e384backed Legacy | 74c | 135.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 331 | 53.5%177 W · 154 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…a16ebacked Legacy | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 485 | 66.2%321 W · 164 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Astralis | 30c | 108.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 347 | 42.9%149 W · 198 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…1f62backed Astralis | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked Legacy | 72c | 98.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 354 | 66.1%234 W · 120 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Legacy | 72c | 77.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 159 | 66%105 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Legacy | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 226 | 54.9%124 W · 102 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Astralis | 29c | 68.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Legacy | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Legacy | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Legacy | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Legacy | 71c | 43.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Legacy | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Legacy | 71c | 42.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Legacy | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Legacy | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Legacy | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group BLegacy won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy - Map 1 WinnerLegacy won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy - Map 2 WinnerLegacy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.