MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1349cd1c817f7b7681c30c81181b47386a025ed01829c6da77383b4b3ffa43ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 4,873$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 21c | 4,565$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 882.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 882.34$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Boston Red Sox | 18c | 677.05$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 25c | 419.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…e934backed Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Boston Red Sox | 26c | 394$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 180.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 115.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Boston Red Sox | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Boston Red Sox | 21c | 99.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Boston Red Sox | 19c | 82.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…8c9dbacked Boston Red Sox | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 66.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 53.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 49.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 36.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 32.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 80c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.