MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0feecf351760442700e6726761c86fbaefe0b6b56282defef6024a5f2263925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 55c | 3,082$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.97 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 2,557$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.41 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Under | 51c | 2,030$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.61 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 56c | 1,800$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Over | 45c | 1,758$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.07 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 1,400$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 1,302$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.5 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 1,113$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.47 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…f20ebacked Under | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 926.58$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.56 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 766.3$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.29 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 47c | 638.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 628.13$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.28 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 53c | 623.42$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.01 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Under | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 45c | 439.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 402.04$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.25 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…e2dfbacked Under | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 17c | 325.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 273.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 41c | 272.09$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.21 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 186.23$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Over | 38c | 169.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 45c | 155.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 115.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 56c | 102.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 100.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Under | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 46c | 96.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 61c | 96.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Under | 53c | 93.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 88.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…e2c0backed Under | 58c | 85.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 46c | 75.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…7f0cbacked Under | 56c | 71.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Under | 55c | 69.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Over | 33c | 66.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -31.9wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -82%equal weight | 22-0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 55c | 51.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Under | 53c | 51.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x387f…70a8backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 47c | 42.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 63c | 42.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 41.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ef…3782backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 33c | 38.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…d80cbacked Under | 56c | 38.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e82…7ab7backed Under | 55c | 36.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…47e7backed Under | 66c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…dc6bbacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 55c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 51c | 23.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 22.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.