MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9db2079754113784abcebe43e22ee1cd91665aebd16501b0c818d0a2e13186f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 35c | 5,199$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.43 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 67c | 4,540$3,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 1,462$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 30c | 1,030$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 60c | 808.8$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.52 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 678.35$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 52c | 578.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.83 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 66c | 468.75$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.13 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 466.94$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.13 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 34c | 275$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Over | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.4wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 35c | 251.44$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.44 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 236$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.14 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Under | 67c | 227.06$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 42c | 213$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 65c | 210$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Over | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 34c | 151.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Under | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 42c | 123.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 64c | 112.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Over | 66c | 112.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 15c | 99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 24c | 99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 87.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Under | 34c | 63.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 65c | 60.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768d…d230backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 39c | 39.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Over | 46c | 37.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 48c | 33.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 35c | 32.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…8eb1backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 374 | 51.3%192 W · 182 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 53c | 28.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 68c | 18.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 75c | 15.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.